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Ratings - The ratings for this program come from the Liqupedia Rating System. Full disclosure I am not involved with Liquepeida and do not know the intricacies of this rating. Obviously the model will only be as good as the initial ratings, and I don't know how it handles roster moves, new teams, etc. I am using the API to pull in hte most recent data, but don't know how frequently it gets updated.
Method - From the Liquepdia ratings the following formula determines the win probability of a bo5 series.
1 / (1 + 10 ^ ((team1_rating - team2_rating) / 700)).
From there my R program run through simulates of the bracket to possible matchups.
Right now the program is fairly basic and requires manual set up of each event. Below is a list of additional features I am hoping to add roughly in order of importance and expected difficulty to add.
- The model right now only accounts for bo5 series. I have hoping to be able to reverse solve the probability of winning a single game based on the bo5 probabilities. This will allow the model to adjust series lengths and use individual games as tiebreakers for any formats that use them.
- Right now it only works with Double eliminatyion brackets and those brackets hbe to be manually create. I will; need to create further code to simulate other match formats, and also hope to find better ways to simulate the bracket creation.
- Ultimately I would like to be able to see if I can directly pull match results and have the model update in real time without having to manually input each match. this would also help for things like Swiss where the draw in between matches has some randomization.
- It would be really neat to see if I could create this as a website where anyone could go on and look at all teams probabilities. Eventually it would be neat to even allow users to make their own bracket to run for simulations.