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2020 Turkish GP Race Debrief - r/Formula1 Editorial Team
2020 Turkish GP DebriefWords by u/Felix_670, u/ShowstopperNL, and u/UnmeshDatta26
Live Session Discussion Threads
Welcome Back Turkey, We Missed YouAfter one hell of a qualifying session yesterday, we were greeted with our first wet race of 2020 at this glorious circuit, which has given us many epic moments in the past.
For the 2020 race, Istanbul Park did just that and, oh boy, how well did it treat us.
Lewis Clinches His 7th World Drivers’ Championship TitleLewis Hamilton won his 7th title and now he stands beside Michael Schumacher with a record equaling 7 titles. The question about what is Hamilton’s status amongst the greats should be well and truly out of the window now. Throughout his career, he has proven to be a legendary fighter, with a killer mentality, and a vast amount of talent to boot. His success on track speaks for itself, and now he is the only other man to win 7 titles.
As he crossed the line to take the chequered flag today, he began to shed tears of joy, remembering the days dreaming of just reaching Formula 1, let alone matching the seemingly untouchable records Schumacher was setting at the time. Now Hamilton has cemented his place in the pantheon of Formula 1 legends. From all of us at Formula1 Editorial Team, hearty congratulations to Lewis Hamilton on equaling another momentous record in history.
Red Bull Fights Racing Point (and Their Car)Lance Stroll, Max Verstappen, Sergio Perez, and Alexander Albon were the talking point leading up to today’s race. The quartet started the race in front but, over the course of 58 laps of madness, that order would not hold to the end, at least for Verstappen, Stroll, and Albon. So let’s start from the beginning.
Verstappen had a dreadful start, as did his teammate Albon, both suffering with wheelspin off the line, their cars struggling to find traction on the wet track. Both cars lost positions at the start, with Hamilton and Sebastian Vettel sneaking past in the chaos that was Turn one. While this was happening, both the Racing Points scampered off into the distance, already opening a considerable margin to the trailing pack. As the early laps developed, however, Hamilton lost places to Verstappen and Albon after making progress initially as he struggled to warm up his brakes and tires.
The order held until the first round of pit stops started. Second-placed Perez opted to stay out for an extra lap, while pole sitter Stroll pitted for his first set of intermediate tires. Charles Leclerc, out of the top 10, had pitted a few laps earlier and was setting fastest sectors almost every lap.
Meanwhile, Verstappen was hot on the heels of Vettel and remained so for a number of laps, and even if was impatient to get past, being often on the knife edge of losing control of his Red Bull, the Ferrari would not yield, the scarlet car seemingly unperturbed by the conditions. Verstappen would only get by once Vettel pitted. Albon stayed out even longer than Verstappen, as Red Bull tried to assure their best finishing positions, but that strategy would ultimately not help their cause. After both Red Bulls pitted, the pink cars were back on top, with Perez now pushing to catch his younger teammate, which he was doing slowly but surely.
After the first round of pit stops was completed, it became evident that Red Bull and Racing Point were running two separate races. On one end, the Red Bulls were both fighting to maintain control while in wheel to wheel combat with the Vettel and Hamilton. On the other hand, the Racing Points were in a much more comfortable situation, out in front leading with multiple second gaps.
Once the second round of pit stops came, however, everything would change.
After leading the race for a significant amount of time, Lance Stroll’s race started to unravel. The Canadian would drop from the lead down to ninth and he could not recover. Perez, on the other hand, thrived on the alternate strategy, managing his intermediate tyres for a staggering 50 laps while to eventually finish in a well-deserved second place. It was another sterling performance from the veteran, and hopefully a balm to the pain of losing a podium at Imola.
Over at Red Bull, things were not going quite as smoothly as for Perez. Max Verstappen spun his Red Bull while going wheel to wheel with Perez, going wide at the back straight kink, splashing into the run off and losing all grip. Alexander Albon would also spin at Turn 4 in the latter stages of the race. To add to the team’s misfortune, their car was simply not able to match the stint Perez did on his intermediates, and Verstappen crossed the line in P6 with Albon right behind him in P7. After their superb qualifying, it was a disappointing race for the Milton Keynes team.
Ferrari Gets a Podium – But Not Who You ThinkWith the team announcing that Team Principal Mattia Binotto would not be making the trip to Turkey, remaining back at Maranello to oversee the latest developments of the new PU for 2021, the pressure to perform was already very high for Leclerc and Vettel. But they did not seem to have the right car on Saturday, as the duo qualified in P12 and P14 respectively.
With a noticeably poorer car and engine package compared to previous seasons, the SF1000 has not been close to the podium’s top step, with Leclerc grabbing two lucky podiums in an otherwise hard year for the Scuderia. Vettel’s results have been even worse, the former champion seemingly on a downward spiral all season, and this race was the perfect opportunity to score a good result for 2020.
Vettel had a great start, even if his initial getaway was difficult, managing to use the chaos and carnage ahead of him to muscle his way into P4 by the end of Lap 1. He made short work of a struggling Hamilton ahead and then held P3, using his tires efficiently to keep a charging Verstappen behind him, before he followed his teammate in pitting for intermediate tires on Lap 9.
He came out behind Albon, and kept challenging the Red Bull while keeping Hamilton behind him, even dropping him at one point near lap 25. The 4-time champion also played his cards extremely well, pitting for a second set of inters on Lap 34.
The pit stop took an agonizing 5 seconds, with problems getting the new rear tires bolted on. If that was not bad enough, after this pitstop, Vettel seemed to lose even more time, dropping behind Leclerc. He did manage to ward off a serious threat from former race leader Stroll, who had also just pitted for inters and also to stay close to Leclerc, who was P4, holding the other SF1000 in his sights until close to the end.
On the last lap, going through the 3 final corners, Vettel found a sliver of space and took his chance, earning an emotional 3rd place finish, his first podium since that great race at Mexico last year. In contrast to much of this season, the German’s steering looked smooth as butter, and he made wise strategy decisions from the cockpit, timing the transition to a second set of inters just right. He looked very patient and had the mental fortitude to keep putting in great lap after great lap. This race showed why, on his best days, Vettel is a driver not to be messed with. He has been through a lot with Ferrari, and this podium is sure to put a spring in his step as he moves to, erm, greener pastures next season.
Vettel’s teammate Leclerc had a solid race as well. The Monégasque had a poor start on Lap 1, failing to get the traction away from the line, bogging down and losing two places. With nothing to lose, he pitted very early on Lap 7 to go the intermediates, at a time when Stroll and Perez were putting up fastest laps on the blue-walled wet tires. It turned out to be the right call, as he pumped out a few fastest laps, followed by a series of consistently fast laps, which helped him undercut a number of drivers ahead of him, finding his way into 9th after the pitstop cycle had over.
There is no doubt, though, that he closed down the large early gap through sheer hard work and fight. All through the rest of the race, he kept his cool, fending off his experienced teammate, before losing it in the last 3 corners of the last lap, coming home in 4th. The young driver will have to prove that he can pull a team out its doldrums, and today is a step in that direction, leading Vettel almost to the end and helping Ferrari collect its highest point total of the season.
For a team that has had troubles throughout the season with their performance, Ferrari showed up in a big way today, from the great strategy call to put Leclerc on intermediates early to getting the timing of the second pit stops right (with a little help from Vettel), the team did a great job. Both the drivers showed why they are such a formidable pair on paper, and Vettel achieved something he had longed for throughout the year: stability. Leclerc, meanwhile, is showing why Ferrari is relying on him to carry the team into the future.
Orange v BananaFocusing on the action slightly further back. Both Esteban Ocon and Daniel Ricciardo had great reactions off the line, both Renaults finding themselves side by side with Hamilton heading into Turn 1. A slight bump from the Mercedes into Ricciardo, however, made him nudge his teammate, who was on the outside of both of them, the unlucky Renault sent into a 360 spin. Just behind this squabble, Valtteri Bottas found himself with nowhere to go as he tried to avoid the spinning Renault and ended up spinning his Mercedes as well.
While Ricciardo’s initial getaway was good, he struggled in the first and second sectors and that saw him finish the first lap having lost 2 places. Ocon, in the meantime, got going again and made some moves, but was hit by Bottas at Turn 9, a puncture forcing him into the pits for an early stop, removing him from the fight at the front for the rest of the race.
McLaren had all their work cut out after a horrendous qualifying session, with a poor result compounded by penalties for both drivers. Starting from P14 and 15, they would have to claw back through the field to salvage points, as Racing Point and Renault looked set for good scoring days both.
Carlos Sainz had a decent getaway, but won most of his positions by his good spatial awareness through all the chaos, coming around to finish Lap 1 in P9. Lando Norris, on the other, seemed to struggle with getting heat into his rear tires, the lack of grip significantly hindering his traction out of corners.
Sainz got past Kimi Räikkönen, who slid off the track at Turn 7, and set his sights on the Renault of Ricciardo but after his first lap trouble, the Aussie was driving in a consistent pace, maintaining the gap to Sainz at 6 seconds until the crossover point. After both drivers made their stops for inters a similar scenario occurred, only at a closer distance. The McLaren got the inters to work faster and Sainz managed to shrink that gap from 6 seconds before the stop to 1.5 seconds, Sainz pressuring Ricciardo, who fought hard to defend his position. Eventually, after a frustrating 25 laps, the Spaniard found his way through, as a slight mistake from Ricciardo out of Turn 9 gave Sainz the opportunity to take P6. He would eventually finish P5, ahead of the Red Bull pair, while Ricciardo finished 10th, disappointing given the fact he started 5th.
Norris had a fairly anonymous but mostly successful outing. He drove a fine race and finished P8 after overtaking Stroll in the final laps, relegating the pole sitter and early leader to a painful P9. Considering their starting position and the prospects of big scoring days for their rivals, these were both excellent results for the McLaren pair, and the race for 3rd in the WCC is still wide open.
Not for the first time this season, Renault looked set for a great finish, but could not match the pace of the Racing Points and McLarens. Ocon will certainly be annoyed after the tangle with his teammate and Hamilton on the first lap, but once he settled down he drove from last back to P11, in what was an excellent recovery drive. It is a shame it was necessary due to the early mishap. It is more of a mystery why Ricciardo’s pace vanished halfway through the race, as after Sainz overtook him, he dropped like a brick down the order, barely finishing on the lead lap and scoring the single point for P10.
Hamilton wins the races, Bottas has his worst performanceLewis Hamilton sealed his 7th title by finishing more than 8 points ahead of Bottas today, and he outscored Bottas by quite a bit by taking the win as Bottas was nowhere to be seen. The 7-time World Champion started the race nearly 25 seconds behind the leader in Stroll, and by the end of the race, he was 30 seconds ahead, showing once again why he has won more races than anyone in history, and once again demonstrating he is unquestionably the best all-round driver on the 2020 grid. He showed incredible poise to fight his way through the field, past his longtime friend and rival Vettel, and lapping his own teammate.
Bottas had possibly the worst day of his Mercedes career, finishing a lap down to his teammate, scoring no points, and finishing 14th place. He had an early spin on Lap 1 due to Ocon’s spinning Renault but from there on he spun around 6 times, ensuring that he never found the pace to push his way through the field. He said that he had front wing damage and steering issues, and we suspect that he may have also suffered some floor damage as well. On a day when he would have to perform mightily to stop his teammate winning another title, he failed to even keep the car pointing in the right direction.
Other Race TidbitsBefore the race started, the drama had already begun in the stewards’ office, as Pierre Gasly changed his entire PU following a request from Honda after qualifying. The car was disassembled only for the team to decide not use the new parts. By then, there was no way for the delegates to supervise and confirm that no parts had been changed and that the setup of the car had not been modified post-disassembly and the Stewards had no option but to hand Gasly a grid penalty, forcing him to start from the back of the grid, in a severe mistake from AlphaTauri.
Further back, George Russell had a decent race for Williams, although he did have a clumsy moment at the pit lane entry, finishing last of the runners, with Nicolas Latifi struggling throughout the race before being hit by Romain Grosjean and retiring on lap 39.
At Haas, Grosjean’s tangle with Latifi was not the last of their troubles. While Grosjean retired on Lap 49 after heavily damaging his floor in the ham-fisted crash with Latifi, Kevin Magnussen almost left the pitlane with a loose tire, and had to be wheeled back to his pit lane box, then ended his race on lap 55.
Teşekkürler TürkiyeToday marked the first time since 2011 that Formula 1 raced in Istanbul. With the track being resurfaced, it created a host of problems for the drivers as the oil started to seep out of the fresh track, and water exacerbated the problems.
Those problems notwithstanding, the track has great flowing corners and good straights, which all drivers seemed to enjoy. While the track record of the Juan and only Juan Pablo Montoya from 2004 survived, if F1 decides to return again next season, spectators can expect that record to tumble quickly. With one race being potentially cancelled in Vietnam next year, a return to Turkey remains a viable option.
And as it is the place where the second ever 7th World Drivers’ Championship was won, Istanbul Park will from this day on hold an important place in the history of Formula 1.
Hollinger's top free agent centers Athletic article. Good list for all the center crazed Rockets fans out there
Tier 1: Max guysNobody.
Tier 2: More than MLE, less than MaxHassan Whiteside — $17,200,380
Whiteside is an interesting case because he’s clearly a starting-caliber center on talent, but his defensive disinterest and stat-seeking reputation make him less popular in front offices. He’s also 31, which will likely limit his traction on any kind of long-term deal.
It’s easy to focus too much on the weaknesses and ignore some of the huge strengths. Whiteside shot 62.1 percent and led the league in blocks; a year earlier he led it in Rebound Rate. Few other bigs control the interior as well as he does, and those that do generally cost twice as much if they’re attainable at all.
That said, his lack of passing or long-range shooting ability can gum up an offense if his catches aren’t near the basket, and his presence basically requires defenses to play a drop coverage that keeps him near the rim.
What he is, in other words, is the perfect stopgap starter — just like he was for Portland this past season. There isn’t a lot of cap room to chase centers this summer, so he could end up back with the Blazers on a one-year deal, but I’m guessing some center-needy team (Charlotte? Detroit?) finds enough change under the cushions to pay him in the $15 million ballpark for a year or two.
Christian Wood — $15,830,309
What a difference a year makes. Wood was cut by the Pelicans a year ago; now he’s arguably the best free-agent center on the market. While his projected value for next season is lower than Whiteside’s, he’s also six years younger and thus much more likely to command a lucrative multi-year deal. It’s easy to sniff that he was playing in meaningless games for a team going nowhere, but that didn’t stop Wood from putting up big numbers at both ends — both at 4 and 5, and both as a reserve and a starter.
It’s hard to dismiss his season as a fluke as well. Wood’s previous brief snippets of NBA minutes had been nearly as productive, and he dominated the G League during his frequent journeys to the minors. The question isn’t how he was so good, it’s what the hell took so long for an NBA team to start playing him.
At 25, he’s in perfect position to cash in, but alas it’s in a market thin on cap space and not hungry for centers. One other factor working against him is that the Pistons would greatly prefer to keep his first-year salary below $10 million, which would enable Detroit to use “Early Bird” rights and a minuscule cap hold of $1.7 million to retain him and leave $30 million for its other free-agent pursuits.
Even at a higher salary, a return to the Pistons still makes the most sense, but I could see a rebuilding Charlotte team also bidding up his price.
Andre Drummond (PO), Cleveland — $14,906,274
Drummond has a player option for $28 million, and there isn’t any great incentive for the Cavs to push him to opt-out and sign a longer deal for lower dollars. Drummond is a phenomenal rebounder and has some playmaking skill from the elbows, but overall grades out as a mid-tier starting center. This market is going to be so harsh for veteran centers that he might not get more than the midlevel if he opts out, and he can likely do much better a year from now.
Jakob Poeltl (R), San Antonio — $13,166,442
Poeltl is a traditional, unsexy center and that may cap his market at the midlevel exception, especially since the Spurs can match any offer. His lack of floor spacing capability and iffy mobility above the 3-point line conspire against him in the pace-and-space era.
But within his role, he’s really good. For a big lug, he’s actually pretty nimble, blocking shots around the rim, positioning himself well in drop coverages and dominating on the glass. Offensively it’s a similar story, as he can’t shoot and has a pretty blah post game, but combats that with a good feel, hard screens, and solid finishing around the basket.
The 25-year-old Austrian may not progress much beyond this level, but it’s pretty easy to see him as the Spurs’ starting center once LaMarcus Aldridge moves on. At anything in the $10 million range, he’s worth it.
Derrick Favors — $12,652,855
I’m guessing Favors won’t get this kind of money because of all the concerns about his knees, but he has been durable the past three seasons and posted a massive 21.4 Rebound Rate last season.
Of equal or greater concern might be his inability to present an offensive threat. He lacks the freight train rim runs of Poeltl and the vertical ability of Wood, and instead is mostly a humdrum short-hook and 12-foot pick-and-pop guy. Favors actually makes those shots at a halfway decent clip, but it’s just not something that scares an opposing defense.
That said, Favors remains a quietly productive player who would either be one of the best backup centers in the league or a good stopgap starter. That may or may not be in New Orleans, depending on the Pelicans’ other plans, but they can re-sign him without dipping into exception money and have plenty of room below the tax line to fit him in.
Tier 3: Mid-level guysKelly Olynyk (PO), Miami — $9,806,750
Olynyk has a player option for $12.6 million that he will likely pick up, as he’s 29 years old and viewed by most as an MLE-worthy player who can serve as a good third big. Theoretically, he could opt out to sign a long deal now, but he’s almost certainly better off taking his one-year payday and hitting the market next year when more money is available.
Montrezl Harrell — $8,816,566
This feels low, right? I strongly suspect Harrell gets the full MLE, at the absolute least, especially since he’s not an age issue at 26.
BORD$ may weigh Harrell’s playoff performance too heavily against him, but his position is a factor, too. Centers automatically have a much higher bar to clear statistically to differentiate themselves from the pack, as the replacement level for 5s is significantly higher. (Look at all the centers near the end of this list if you don’t believe me).
In terms of his real-life market, Harrell won the Sixth Man award while playing for one of the league’s best teams, but remains a tricky piece to fit in on a starter’s money. The offense is potent (31.7 points per 100 on 58.0 percent shooting is pretty ridiculous), but he’s not a shooter, so if he isn’t involved in the pick-and-roll game he can impact spacing. As with the other centers above, the lack of cap space teams and flimsy market for bigs will also conspire against him this offseason.
As far as this specific rating, Harrell gets dinged as a negative defender who is both undersized and not notably mobile. Harrell has the worst defensive PI-PM of any center whose name doesn’t end in “elicio,” dragging down his BORG to the point that his elite offense could only do so much to improve his valuation.
Tier 4: Less than MLE, more than minimumNerlens Noel — $6,511,224
Noel may have trouble getting to this number because of perceptions about his commitment level, but he was really good in OKC this year. In the playoffs against Houston, he showed himself to be far more switchable and versatile against the Rockets’ unique schemes than starter Steven Adams.
While Noel’s overall offensive limitations are pretty severe — the dunk is basically his only shot — he easily could play a more prominent role in a switch-heavy scheme that needs a rim-runner. He’s also 26, so a two-year deal would guarantee a team the sweet spot of his career.
Marc Gasol — $5,953,626
Gasol’s valuation here is understandable in light of the fact that he’s 36 and his offensive game mostly dried up in 2019-20, scoring just 13.6 points per 100 possessions. He’s a good passer who can camp above the 3-point line (38.5 percent last season) and keep the lane open for others, but is no longer a big threat around the basket.
However, contending teams might put a bigger price tag on him because his defensive game scales up so well to a playoff environment. He’s still one of the league’s best low-post defenders (important if, say, Joel Embiid is a potential opponent) and remains mobile and savvy enough to play any coverage scheme. Even at 35, Gasol’s defensive metrics were near the top of the league at this position.
JaVale McGee (PO), Lakers — $5,753,491
McGee vanished from the Lakers’ rotation as the playoffs wore on after starting 68 games for them in the regular season. He played well enough to earn a bigger deal than the $4.2 million player option he has for next season, but the lack of minutes in the postseason may hurt his market. At 32, it’s also hard to envision him scoring a multi-year deal.
As with several of the other bigs in this tier, McGee is accomplished as a lob threat and shot-blocker but less so in terms of spacing the floor and defending above the 3-point line. He’s likely looking at a 20-minute role in some team’s center rotation, whether it’s back in L.A. or in a new uniform. His opt-out decision will be a tough one in terms of money, but he’d be hard-pressed to find a better basketball situation than his current one.
Enes Kanter (PO), Boston — $5,641,787
Kanter has a player option for $5.0 million, and this valuation says he has one of the more interesting decisions of any player this offseason. Adding to the complexity: If Kanter does opt-in he’s likely to be traded because of the Celtics’ luxury tax situation and will have little control over his destination. It’s possible he’d rather pick his team than have the Celtics do it for him, and gamble that he can get roughly the same money either way.
Kanter’s rough and tumble game probably fits better on a team that needs his offense more than the Celtics do. He’s one of the few players so good at scoring on the block for post-ups to be valuable, and he’s a monstrous offensive rebounder. The tricky part is how to hide him on defense, where he is slow-footed defending pick-and-rolls and struggles to protect the rim. Those limitations have pushed him out of playoff games in recent years and may limit his market too.
Serge Ibaka — $5,521,235
Subjectively, this number is low and I expect Ibaka’s next contract to come in around the MLE or a bit more. Why is it just $5.5 million? As with Harrell above, the market for centers in general isn’t that rosy. Also, while the eye test said Ibaka had a pretty solid year in 2019-20, bumping his scoring rate and hitting 38.5 percent from 3, his advanced numbers were more skeptical. Ibaka’s on-off numbers were the worst of any of the nine Raptors with at least 1,000 minutes, and by a pretty wide margin. That didn’t help his case.
Combine that with his age (31 this coming season) and the fact he mostly plays the league’s most replaceable position (94 percent of his minutes were at center, according to Cleaning the Glass), and he projects at a much lower valuation than his brand name might suggest.
Nikola Milutinov, CSKA Moscow
The Spurs still own the rights to the 25-year-old seven-footer after selecting him late in the first round in 2015. He’s since emerged as one of the best bigs in Europe, albeit with a game firmly rooted in the 1990s that may not translate as well across the pond. Think of him as a high-end backup center type who would make sense in the $5 million range. Also, note that he is not bound by the rookie salary scale for first-rounders because the Spurs drafted him more than three years ago.
Isaiah Hartenstein — $3,693,329
This number is on the high side, a result of BORG evaluating Hartenstein on some pretty small minutes samples over the past two seasons. Nonetheless, the league’s bottom feeders should be doing their homework on this guy. Hartenstein is only 22, remains 2-way eligible, and murdered the G League during his 14-game stint there last season. I’d be interested to see how he fares in an offensive role that went beyond “watch James Harden and dunk when he passes it to you.”
I’d like him more if he could shoot, but that part may not come around. Hartenstein also struggles on defense and his awkward hunched-over posture doesn’t help him with the eye test. Nonetheless, there should be a role for him someplace.
Mason Plumlee — $3,344,137
Plumlee still has his uses, but he’s looking at a major pay cut from the $14 million he made a year ago. Plumlee can’t shoot, struggles from the free-throw line, and has a maddening tendency to call his own number on post-ups. However, he’s a useful reserve because he remains an athletic lob threat even at age 30, and he’s a good passer and ballhandler. Defensively his size and mobility are a plus but he can be his own worst enemy rushing into mistakes, such as the play where he lost Antony Davis at the end of Game 2 of the conference finals.
Overall, I think this number is perhaps a shade low and that he’s more likely to get the room exception (about $5 million). Given the juggling Denver will need to do to remain below the tax level, I’m not sure that payday is coming from the Nuggets.
Dwight Howard — $3,137,516
Howard played his part to a tee for the champs last season, providing an energy defender, occasional roller, and frequent troller. With limited minutes Howard made sure he got his licks in, committing an eye-popping 8.1 fouls per 100 possessions. He’s 35 and his offensive game is now extremely limited because he’s lost so much leaping ability, but he still moves well laterally and books up and down the court in short-minute bursts.
Alex Len — $3,067,904
Len struggled in 2019-20 after a strong 2018-19 campaign, but he’s huge, rebounds well, and converts lobs and passes around the rim. He’s not a super athlete and has to play drop coverage, and his efforts to develop a 3-point game have been halting. At 27, however, there still is some tread left on these tires.
Skal Labissiere (R), Atlanta — $2,930,540
Acquired from Portland in a trade deadline salary dump, Labissiere nonetheless may have a future in Atlanta. The Hawks likely will decline to give Labissiere a $3.5 million qualifying offer, especially with two other expensive centers on their books, but can bring him back on a minimum deal and see if the 24-year-old Haitian can find a home on his third team.
Labissiere is a soft defensive presence but proved an accurate mid-range shooter with a soft touch when pressed into service in Portland, making 58 percent of his long 2s; extending that range to the 3-point line could unlock a lot more value.
Ante Zizic — $2,877,801
Zizic’s age (23) helps him grade out as a slightly-better-than-minimum option at the center spot via BORD$, but in reality, I doubt he’ll be back in the NBA. He’s a good rebounder who plays hard and can shoot from short range, but a defensive liability and not a floor-spacer. He only played 22 games last season after the Cavs declined his fourth-year option. I’d expect him to return to Europe.
Cheick Diallo (T), Phoenix — $2,705,142
The Suns will likely decline Diallo’s affordable $1.8 million option for next season to open up more cap space, but he could easily be back in Phoenix on another minimum deal. The 24-year-old is badly undersized for the middle at 6-8, 219, but has become a good short-to-mid range shooter who could really up his value by extending the range to the 3-point line. Doing so would also make him more viable at the 4, which is a much better fit for him at his size.
Tier 5: Minimum guys ($2.6M or less)Note: I did not include a dollar figure in this tier, as at this level all their contracts are proscribed by the league minimum contract rules.
If you really want to understand the concept of replacement level and why the valuations on the centers above might seem low, just look at the list below. All these guys projected as at or below replacement level for an NBA center this year, even though several appeared to be reasonably effective. The bar is just higher at the 5.
Giles has become a hot conversation topic in free-agency circles despite a very ordinary resume to date, and I do expect a team to take the plunge on him at a price above the minimum salary. The Kings declined his fourth-year option but could still bring him back at a salary up to $3,976,510, and with new management in Sacramento it’s possible they go that route.
I would have trouble seeing them get outbid, but I suppose it’s possible. Giles is just 22 and was an elite player as a teenager before a series of injuries sapped some athleticism. He is a good passer from the elbows but his narrowish frame is slightly undersized at center; however, he’s almost forced to pay there by his limited shooting range and somewhat stiff movement.
Also, there’s the little matter of the fouls. Giles committed 8.7 fouls per 100 possessions last season, an obscenely high rate that led all players with at least 500 minutes played.
Giles’s injury history also is scary, although at his likely price it’s much less of a concern. I only listed one-year value here, but Giles makes a good flier on a multi-year, low-dollar deal for a rebuilding team with some leftover money.
Subjectively I like Baynes better than several of the names just above him. It’s a surprise to see Baynes down here given how well he played early in the season for Phoenix, and overall this still might have been his best statistical season.
But I can see the other side of the argument, too. Baynes’s play really tailed off the second half of the year and the Suns played their best basketball once he was out of the lineup. That last part is perhaps unfair — it’s not his fault the other dudes caught fire — but the deeper you dig on Baynes the iffier his resume looks.
Let’s start with the positive: He made shots. Baynes shot 35.1 percent on his goofy-looking push 3s, and 58.2 percent inside the arc, and shot enough to tally 24.4 points per 100 possessions. That’s really good for a center, although one can fairly question whether that 3-point rate is sustainable.
Nonetheless, neither PI-PM nor Raptor saw him as a notably impactful offensive player, and defensively he struggled to make an impact. Baynes saw both his rebound and block rates dip sharply at age 33, and also had a sky-high foul rate (7.2 per 100).
Overall, BORG saw him as slightly better than a minimum player a year ago, but with the age adjustment for 2020-21 he’s with the minimum guys. Too harsh? Perhaps. Certainly, somebody in need of a center will sign him, likely with a chunk of exception money.
Of the bigs likely to be available with the one-year minimum, I like Henson the best. He’s pretty mobile despite pushing 30, and his lack of muscle in the middle is increasingly becoming less of a concern because of how the league has changed. His defensive metrics last season were very good while toiling in anonymity for two terrible teams last year, including a high block rate.
Offensively Henson is no perimeter threat but is still long and bouncy enough to shoot 78.5 percent at the rim last year and he has a pretty effective jump hook game against switches. I wouldn’t go crazy here, but I’d be pretty okay with him as my fifth big.
Thompson averaged a double-double last year, believe it or not, but it’s hard to look at his year and say he was truly productive with a 51.8 percent 2-point shooting percentage and a jump in turnovers. The one thing he still does in bunches is grab rebounds, yanking down 18.6 percent of missed shots last season. Defensively he’s unspectacular, although he did boost his block rate last season. Overall I’d lump him in with Henson at the top of my minimum contract center pool.
Drew Eubanks (R), San Antonio
Eubanks gave the Spurs some good minutes in the bubble, including an impactful performance against New Orleans that inspired me to write a mini-ode to his play.
Bigger picture, the Spurs’ 2-way is ready to sign a deal for a full roster spot and likely deserves one after his 2019-20 performance. He’s a bit undersized for a center at 6-9 and doesn’t have any shooting range, but has enough explosion around the basket to rim run effectively and is capable of playing solid drop coverage as a rim protector. At 23, there’s still hope for more.
It seems like he’s been around forever but Vonleh is just 25 and he still teases with the idea that he might put it all together. While cycling through six different teams, Vonleh at various times has flashed ballhandling skill, some 3-point capability, plus rebounding, and switchability, but never for very long and never all at the same time.
If I were a rebuilding team, I still might be tempted to bring him on a minimum flier. His last two seasons were roughly replacement level, and hints remain that he might deliver something better in the future.
Kyle Alexander (R), Miami
Miami’s 2-way was one of the best players in the G League and could be the next player to break out in the Heat’s Sioux Falls-NBA pipeline. A bouncy, skinny rim runner who played just 14 NBA minutes last season, Alexander probably comes back on another 2-way or a minimum deal.
Similar to Alexander above — his frequent rival over four years of Alabama-Tennessee games in the SEC — Hall is an undersized 5 who dominated in the G League and is ready to take the next step up the ladder. Unlike Alexander, no team controls his rights, and he should be a target for rebuilding teams in need of frontcourt depth.
When I watched him as a younger player in Spain, I always thought Hernangomez would eventually be able to make 3s as a pro, but it hasn’t happened yet. It needs to because the rest of his game isn’t quite good enough to stay in a rotation otherwise. Hernangomez rebounds, can score in the post, and has good footwork around the basket, but is a minus defender and makes way too many turnovers. At 26, time is running out.
Leonard actually started 49 games for Miami this year, albeit not very productively, before the Heat deep-sixed him in the playoffs. His biggest selling point, by far, is a 39.0 percent career mark on 3s, including 41.4 percent last season. While it’s a low release and he has to be completely set, that weapon gives him some offensive value. Leonard can also fly down the lane for the occasional dunk, but rim running isn’t his specialty.
Defensively, his game is much more suspect, with poor rebound and block rates and little capability to guard beyond the 3-point line. He still belongs in the league and would be a sensible target as a third center on a minimum deal, especially for teams who can periodically weaponize his shooting in the right matchup.
Mike Muscala (PO), Oklahoma City
Muscala has a player option for $2.2 million, which is just the minimum, but I can’t imagine a scenario where he does any better than that after he fell out of the Thunder’s big man rotation this season.
Maker becomes an interesting proposition if he can convert 3s closer to a 40 percent clip. At 34.4 percent for his career, however, there’s nothing to see here. He offers some intriguing switchability at the defensive end and has a plus motor, but he doesn’t have enough muscle to score near the basket and he fouls in bunches as a result of his strength disadvantage.
Not a lot to discuss here in terms of basketball since he never plays, but one presumes he’ll be back in his role as a glorified assistant coach with Miami.
Moses Brown (R), Portland
The Blazers’ raw 2-way only played NBA 35 minutes but managed to swat five shots in that time. He put up some impressive stats in the G League as a 20-year-old, although the fact he had just five assists in 30 games is a bit troubling. I’d expect him to be back on another two-way or a minimum deal in Portland’s player development incubator.
Biyombo has lost a bit off bounce the past few years so his rebounding and shot-blocking aren’t quite in the elite territory of his early-mid 20s. Which is unfortunate, because his offensive contribution is near-zero as a non-shooter without much in the way of ball skills. He still could figure into the equation next year if a team needs a third center.
Like a lot of the centers on this list, Mahinmi offers decent mobility and plus shot-blocking but just doesn’t pack enough offensive punch for the way teams play in 2020. He turns 34 in early November and may have a difficult time procuring even a minimum deal.
Damian Jones, (R), Atlanta
Somehow started more than 20 games each of the past two seasons. I’m guessing there won’t be a three-peat. I have no expectation that the Hawks will give him a qualifying offer or make any other effort to retain him, as they basically replaced him with Clint Capela and Dewayne Dedmon at the trade deadline and likely will keep Skal Labissiere above as the third center.
Jones actually cut his turnover rate last season and scored pretty efficiently around the basket, but despite being big and fairly athletic he is weirdly awful at rebounding (just 12.5 percent Rebound Rate in 2019-20) and inconsistent at best on defense. No longer 2-way eligible, he’ll likely have to rebuild his stock in the G League and hope for a 10-day.
Came to the NBA in the wrong century. Okafor can get buckets on the low block, but nobody wants to post up anymore and he’s far too limited in the other phases of the game —particularly defensively—to warrant a significant role.
Physical, high-IQ guy who is popular in the locker room, but he’s 30 and lost his job to Norvell Pelle last year. O’Quinn’s lack of offensive mojo in particular (just 15.8 points per 100 last year) likely limits his attractiveness.