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Blue Ocean Tragedy

There are certain ideas and concepts which are magnets for mischief. Unfortunately the ideas are useful, insightful, but upon release prone to abuse and some really ludicrous mental gymnastics in an attempt to avoid the point.
One example was Reengineering the Corporation. As I recall in a later interview with authors who looked on in horror as a legion of corporate morons used the book title as a code word for mass firings. No reengineering for efficiency or effectiveness required -- but you'd never be able to tell from the memos.
So it is with wantrepreneurs looking for wide open markets supposedly free of competition. Full of very gullible fish who bite on an empty hook. The bastardized ideas which launched a thousand pool toys, rudderless and without sail, upon an unforgiving ocean. No strategy required.

No Money. No Funding. No Skill. No Clue. ...Nailed It!

As with everything internet, it's where you take good and potentially valuable ideas ... shoot them in the head then bury them in a shallow grave covered with bullshit. In this case, wide open markets are competition free zones unencumbered by mean capitalism and rough realities. Newbies took to Blue Ocean Strategy like pirates on a raid.
Then they made W. Chan Kim and Renée Mauborgne walk the plank.
You are a pioneer engineering a breakthrough product for a lucrative niche. And pioneers get arrows. It takes more skill and experience and money to pioneer a genuine innovation and make it into a market success. Not none. Wantrepreneurs think saying "Blue Ocean Strategy" is like calling a time-out from reality.
The same people like saying stupid shit like ideas are worthless, execution is everything. Then have no brain function about how to effectively execute. And their first appointment to the wreckage they set sail on is first mate: The Early Adopter.
Early adopters are disruptors using something, usually pioneering tech, in radical new ways for big money at high stakes. Your early adopters are not just the first few schmucks that tried your app because they couldn't use a search engine to find something good. First idea people have is these 'fish' are stupid, gullible, and starving -- they'd bite on an empty hook.
That is a nice idea. It even happens to be true on rare occasions. But it's just not something you want to bet on when crossing oceans. Far more useful is the idea of early adopters as satisficers, not maximizers.
Maximizers want best-in-class. Satisficers want good enough. This presents its own problems -- trying to shove out crap thinking satisficers won't notice something is in no way, shape or form good enough. Little Tip: Don't Shove Out Crap Using An Unfounded Assumption You'll Find Some Schmuck.
Founders often hold too tightly onto solutions and too loosely onto problems. The problem, i.e. the market, is the real opportunity. ... At Sequoia, they talk about finding customers who “have their hair on fire”. As a founder, I never took the time to really understand what that meant and I thought it was just an investor marketing saying. Now, when I talk to founders I extend the metaphor to illustrate it more clearly. If your friend was standing next to you and their hair was on fire, that fire would be the only thing they really cared about in this world. It wouldn’t matter if they were hungry, just suffered a bad breakup, or were running late to a meeting—they’d prioritize putting the fire out. If you handed them a hose—the perfect product/solution—they would put the fire out immediately and go on their way. If you handed them a brick they would still grab it and try to hit themselves on the head to put out the fire. You need to find problems so dire that users are willing try half-baked, v1, imperfect solutions.
The Real Product Market Fit By Michael Seibel; Y Combinator

Here Be Pirates

Nobody cares if you patent your idea. Patents are like bullets, unrealized potential when you don't have the money to pay for the gun -- a court battle. You sue, expect the company to pull a dozen patents out of their hoard and counter-sue a dozen times over. That's what patent hoards are for.
Yeti is suing Walmart a second time for knockoffs. Amazon is alleged to be copying the best selling products of vendors. The average entrepreneur, with one patent on a meh product with mediocre demand and no market research to speak of has no worries from ripoff artists. No pirate with any self respect wants to be laughed at.
You run a ship brimming with gold, be prepared to be boarded. Your typical dipshit seems to think you planted your little flag, competitors shrug and say "Got here first. It's all yours." Naiveté is not a skill, so don't practice. Ah yes, but what about first mover advantage? Now there's a nice idea to demolish.
For every example of first-mover advantage there are 10 demonstrating just the opposite. Where’s Atari? Mentadent created the market for peroxide toothpaste. Who? Exactly. Netscape predated Internet Explorer, MySpace was supplanted by Facebook, Yahoo’s search engine has been eclipsed by Google.
The Myth of First-Mover Advantage
First movers seem to think your advantage is you get a customer, you own that customer for life. Too many don't so much use any small advantage to learn about the market and customer base as try to pretend customers have no other choice.
"First mover advantage is a myth," Grant said to the TED audience - and brought the stats to prove it. In a comprehensive business study, 47% of first mover companies would fail in their early years compared to only 8% of so-called "improvers". Great examples include Facebook and Google, dominant startups that came years, if not a decade after their predecessors. "You don't have to be first. You have to be different and better."
At TED, Wharton Professor Shares 3 Myths About Startup Success
The United States invents LCD technology, Japan commercializes LCD technology. The scroll wheel anyone can point to as an example of Apple's genius? Synaptics invented the scroll wheel. Xerox PARC invents the mouse, the GUI, the desktop paradigm, laser printing, ethernet and ... well, you get the picture.

The Dead Sea

An alternative explanation is the market is full of the wreckage of fleets of startups that blunder oblivious to the problems a viable business would need solutions for. You see them beneath the waves as your inflatable raft drifts aimlessly past. Another is the false map, leading you to a product niche with no matching market to support it. There is Atlantis. And then there is that mythic realm Juicero -- lost island of vasty treasure. We'll trade in the arrr and yo ho-ho for ...d'oh!
May take months. Could be years. Then, a flash of brilliance "Why isn't there a coffee pod ... for juice!" The never existed idea is born. Kinda. It's easy to see the readily apparent. On oceans you'll want to look out for rocks and obstructions below water's surface because those will rip your hull. Ships run aground thinking it's all fathoms deep.
Tech innovation, real wide open market innovation, requires a lot of funding for success. This grates on the wantrepreneur's nerves, because they know full well you don't need money to start a business. Perhaps, but running out of money is the top reason you'll end a business. Adequate funding, Christopher Columbus.
People have given up, or posted and whined about being depressed upon finding one single other competitor for some supposed "never existed before" idea. That's not Blue Ocean Strategy. That's unwillingness to compete at any level, and it is detestable in entrepreneurs. Wantreprenerus ... meh, who gives a shit about them.

The Vanilla Paradox: Crossing the Blue Ocean to Mass Market Success Nice because it introduces Crossing The Chasm, or how new wide open markets are hard to succeed in, before the internet made it seem so damn easy.
How RCA Lost The LCD - IEEE Spectrum RCA owned the early patents but failed to commercialize the liquid crystal display. Wantrepreneurs know the secret of Blue Ocean Strategy ... RCA didn't call dibs.
Debunking the “first-mover advantage” myth in business " Microsoft came up with a tablet computer a full decade before the iPad was unveiled, but the market just wasn’t ready. Friendster beat Facebook to the punch, but was beset by huge server and infrastructure costs, among other challenges. In recent years, Snapchat has pioneered everything from disappearing images to face-morphing lenses … only to see Facebook co-opt nearly every key feature."
First Mover Advantage: It Ain't an Advantage or, the Pioneer's the One With Arrows in His Back
How Smart Entrepreneurs Beat First Movers
The Risks of Following a Blue Ocean Strategy number one being dumbing the ideas down so much you are no longer even following the strategy.
Satisficing vs. Maximizing a decent introduction.
The Real Product Market Fit treasure be good -- questing for the white whale be bad.
submitted by AnonJian to RoastMyIdea

3am Wed 9 May 2012

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