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Some context on the sales of The Last of Us 2 in Japan from a Japanese user.
But I'm not going to, because when looked at in context, The Last of Us 2 has shown a large failure to grow at all from its original's sales in Japan, but there's a lot more to it than that, so let me explain.
For those that don't want the longer explanation, the TL;DR is at the last paragraph.
First of all, let's make clear where I'm getting my information. I'm using Famitsu/Enterbrain's data. They've been publishing sales data for console games since 1996 in their magazine Weekly Famitsu and also on their website since the early 2000s. They also publish a white paper with hundreds of pages of industry information every year, including things like archival data and analysis. I own several of these, as I have a large interest in tracking RPG sales data.
Back when The Last of Us released on the Playstation 3 in 2014 sold roughly 226,000 copies (or 226,268, though due to margin of error I think it's easier just to round it). Right now The Last of Us 2 is sitting at 213,968 copies, with 9,279 copies sold in the June 29 to July 5th reporting week. Its first week sales were 178,696 and the week before that it sold 25,993 copies. This is not too out of the ordinary for a typical hit game in Japan, both in terms of drop off and numbers, though the sheer amount of used copies flooding the market right now is. A game is usually considered a minor hit 100,000, a big hit at 250,000, a megahit at 500,000 and a huge hit success at one million. (This was actually landmarks Famitsu themselves created back in the late 90s, based on average of how well all games did, but it still sticks in the consciousness of Japanese gamers today.) Obviously for certain very niche game, lower numbers can also mean success, but that's the general measuring stick.
Now while it might seem like The Last of Us 2 is on track outsell its predecessor, the truth of the matter is a lot more complex.
Back in 2013, when The Last of Us released, very few Western games hit the Japanese charts period. And very few of them ever sold enough to rank in the top 100 for the year. You have some outliers, like the original Crash Bandicoot or the Ratchet and Clank series on the PS2, Grand Theft Auto, Rare's game like Donkey Kong Country and Banjo Kazooie (not games like Goldeneye), but these are few and far between.
And the reason for this is not racism or xenophobia (and it never was). It's competition. The Japanese gaming industry produces a ton of product directly aimed at Japanese consumers' interests, so a foreign product that is not as aware of our likes and dislikes, trends and so on is not as likely to hit as big and when there are so many Japanese games, they tended to get crushed beneath them all. One emblematic example is FIFA vs. Winning Eleven (or Pro Evolution Soccer). It used to be that Konami's sold a million or above every year and FIFA barely sold enough to chart in the first place. Now FIFA regularly outsells Winning Eleven and regularly gets in the 100,000 to 250,000 hit status every year.
In 2013, only four Western games appeared in the top 100, of which The Last of Us was the third best seller after Donkey Kong Country Returns 3D on the 3DS and Grand Theft Auto V. (The last one was that year's Call of Duty's dubbed version. They used to sell separate subbed and dubbed versions of Call of Duty games in Japan.) This was a rising trend in Japan at the time because the PS3 was the second most successful platform after the 3DS that year and most Japanese developers either developed games for the Vita or 3DS, which left a market hole for Western developers to fill out the lineup for the PS3 and as time went on, its successor the PS4.
But at the time, believe it or not the PSP was still selling games in Japan regularly, the Vita was and has done better in Japan than any other market and the 3DS was the absolute market dominating force. The Wii U released that year and while it didn't set the world on fire, it was even more competition. The Xbox 360, while not very successful compared to the rest was the best Microsoft had ever done in Japan. Also, due to the influx of people being exposed to first and third person shooters due to lack of competition, what was then called "server games," which was the slang for third person multiplayer shooters at the time, were beginning to really catch on with hardcore Japanese gamers and lead to them purchasing more Western games. (Obviously, mobile games were at this time still insanely popular as they are today, but they're largely irrelevant to this conversation, so we're going to ignore them.)
Fast forward to 2020. There are only two successful console platforms, the Switch and the PS4. The Xbox is a complete joke over here, not even worth mentioning. The 3DS and the Vita are dead. While the Switch is mopping the floor its competition, the PS4 does have its moments and is looking like it's going to at least match the PS3's success. (The PS3 eventually sold 10 million units in Japan and had a long lifespan with many third parties selling very well, even if it wasn't as big a success as the PS2. The PS4 right now is at 9,188,000 units sold.)
There is not anywhere close to the hardware competition there used to be and seven more years of trends have completely changed the software market. Not only do Western packaged games sell better, but Western indies sell very well too. (Some indies that might be lesser known in the West such as Human Fall Flat for instance are a huge success in Japan in the digital marketplace.)
The year isn't over yet and there are 13 Western games in the top 100, and this is ignoring successful digital-only indies like Celeste and Dead Cells. Last year 11 games made it onto the list (not counting different Switch and PS4 versions of the same game). Games like Days Gone, Spiderman, God of War, Division 2, Call of Duty sells in the hundreds of thousands regularly. Games like Fallout and Witcher and Borderlands, which would barely sell enough copies to register on the charts previously because of the competition from Japanese RPGs regularly put up similar numbers to games like Xenoblade and Etrian Odyssey, which means that while they're not still as popular as popular domestic RPGs, they gain a very similar niche audience.
Among this change, The Last of Us stands out. Sony often offers Best versions of their games at reduced prices and if the game was a hit these usually have long sales tails. This is done to combat the incredibly vibrant used games market in Japan. (To put it simply, there are more places to buy used games than there typically is for new games and the whole market total sales tends to mirror the new game market these days.) Japanese consumers are sensitive to price, especially most games can cost a lot higher at the base price than Western users are used to. A Best version of a game will often tell you how popular it is in general, because obviously uses sales do not get configured into sales data. (Nintendo and the Switch are a different market and work based on a different model they've cultivated since the DS of promoting and selling games over a longer period of time, but Sony's market operates pretty much the same as its been since the PlayStation days.) Even the best games that don't have unlikable sociopathic gorillas as playable characters succumb to the used market after a couple of weeks.
So when Sony offered a Best version of The Last of Us on PlayStation 3 in 2015, not only did it not even chart, it never sold much over long period of time, even though Japanese developers making PS3 versions of their games kept that platform alive well after it died in other markets. Western games, even critically acclaimed ones had a harder time of it back then.
The Last of Us Remastered in 2018 sold about 20,000 copies. The Best version of Remastered however that is equal to or lower than the price you can usually get it for used (at around 2,000 yen) released later? That sold 3,735 copies last week alone, with a total of 104,000 copies. This time, Abby couldn't kill the daddy.
Meanwhile you'll see stacks of Last of Us 2 in stores for cheaper. There was even a meme last week as someone found it in what's called the "wagon" or a huge dump bin of hugely reduced games you can usually buy for a coin, anywhere from 100 to 500 yen. (This is called "into the wagon" in Japanese slang and time from first sales day to the dreaded wagon is a meme Japanese users usually use to share how badly a game is doing.) One would have expected the Last of Us 2 to be able to hit close to the 500,000 mark like in around a month like the new God of War did. Way back when on the PS2 those game were something of an outlier at around 100,000 to 150,000 copies each, but the growth in Western games sales speaks to how much more successful the reboot was. The Last of Us 2 is barely even able to keep up with Days Gone (which is about at the same amount) and had no previous game to build upon. Horizon Zero Dawn is having a similar success with a budget version three years after its release as it continues to sell and sell by keeping up with the market price. But that's three years. It's been a month in Japan and you can barely get people to buy the game at 500 yen. Many Japanese retail blogs have mentioned that they still haven't sold out of their initial shipment of the game, which has prompted speculation that there's been no additional shipments since the first and what we see on the sales charts are just that initial shipment selling through. Meanwhile, the same retail blogs mention how unexpectedly well Sekai Asobi Taizen 51 (or Clubhouse Games) is selling. In other words, a collection of games most of which you can play for free on some place like Yahoo Games is outdoing The Last of Us 2 at retail, despite a much healthier market for Western games these days.
TL;DR After all this time, the original has grown to the point where it sells enough this year alone to be seen as a minor hit in the Japanese market, let alone its original release, whereas the sequel despite selling about as much as the original when it first released is being swallowed by the used market and did not show anywhere close to the growth other Western games have over the time period seven years earlier. Western games now do very well competitively compared to the domestic games and there's no reason Last of Us 2 should be under performing compared to expectations as much it has in Japan.
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