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Email to David Hemenway regarding one of his studies.

To: [email protected]
Subject: Severe flaws in study regarding homicide rates and gun ownership among 26 countries
"Link to study in question: http://www.statistics.com/papers/Homicides_and_guns.pdf
Dear Dr. Hemenway. I was reading your study about the comparision among 26 countries in regards to gun ownership and homicide rates. I noticed quite a bit of flaws.
First off: Northern Ireland. In your study the year which the homicide data for NI was compiled the region itself was in the midst of a brutal civil war. You do in fact address this in your study, but using figures from when the civil war was in full swing is a bit disingenuous.
During the end of 1994 a ceasefire was declared in Northern Ireland by the IRA. In 1996 this ceasefire was overturned by the IRA, therefore the conflict in Northern Ireland did not officially end until the signing of the Good Friday agreement, which was in 1998.
Ceasefire in 1994: http://news.bbc.co.uk/onthisday/hi/dates/stories/august/31/newsid_3605000/3605348.stm
Ceasefire ends in 1996: http://news.bbc.co.uk/onthisday/hi/dates/stories/february/10/newsid_2539000/2539265.stm
Good Friday agreement signed:http://news.bbc.co.uk/onthisday/hi/dates/stories/april/10/newsid_2450000/2450823.stm
Now let's look at homicide rates corresponding to that period:
Northern Ireland homicide rates 1994-2011:
1994: 6.09 (ceasefire signed) 1995: 1.44 1996: 2.33 (ceasefire ends) 1997: 2.92 1998: 4.47 (Good Friday agreement signed) 1999: 2.02 2000: 2.84 2001: 3.08 2002: 2.65 2003: 1.94 2004: 2.39 2005: 1.68 2006: 1.38 2007: 1.70 2008: 1.46 2009: 1.23 2010: 1.55 2011: 1.27
As one can see, there is a massive drop from when the ceasefire was signed, and when the Good Friday agreement was signed. In reality the higher homicide rate that Northern Ireland exhibited in 1994 had nil to do with gun ownership. It was the result of a regional conflict.
Now my next problem with your study is how you calculate gun ownership; in your study you use gun suicide rates as a proxy for determining gun ownership as well as the Cook index. While one can see the merits in utilizing these proxies, it can also lead to misleading and wonky conclusions.
For example in your study Canada is listed as having higher gun availability than Switzerland. However according to the Small Arms Survey (the go-to publication among researchers in determining international gun ownership rates) the gun ownership rate for Switzerland is 45.7 per 100 residents. In Canada this rate is 30.8 per 100 residents. Notice the stark difference? Are we really to believe that Switzerland has less gun ownership than Canada?
Same thing for Israel and Germany. Israel is listed as having a higher gun availabilty rate than Germany, despite the fact that the gun ownership rate in Germany is 30.3 while in Israel it's a measly 7.3.
Link to the Small Arms Survey: http://www.smallarmssurvey.org/fileadmin/docs/A-Yearbook/2007/en/Small-Arms-Survey-2007-Chapter-02-annexe-4-EN.pdf
Hopefully you understand the point as there are quite a few more examples of this occurrence in your study.
Anyways let's wrap this up by looking at the most up-to-date homicide rates amongst the countries in your list and cross-reference them to gun ownership rates. Shall we?
Latest UN compiled homicide rates amongst member countries for 2011 (XLS download): http://www.unodc.org/documents/data-and-analysis/statistics/crime/Homicide_statistics2013.xls
However a slight problem exists. Not all of the homicide rates for each individual country is from the latest year. In some cases homicide rates for a certain country is not available for 2011. In this case we'll just cite the most recent year when figures were available. Gun ownership rates come from the Small Arms Survey. The gun ownership rate for Hong Kong seems to be unavailable.
Let's begin:
United States: Homicide rate: 4.7 (2011) Gun ownership rate: 88.8
Northern Ireland: Homicide rate: 1.3 (2011) Gun ownership rate: 21.9
Finland: Homicide rate: 2.2 (2011) Gun ownership rate: 45.3
Israel: Homicide rate: 2.0 (2011) Gun ownership rate: 7.3
Italy: Homicide rate 0.9 (2011) Gun ownership rate: 11.9
Scotland: Homicide rate 1.8 (2011) Gun ownership rate: 5.5
Canada: Homicide rate: 1.5 (2011) Gun ownership rate: 30.8
Australia: Homicide rate: 1.1 (2011) Gun ownership rate: 15.0
Taiwan: Homicide rate: 3.2 (2011) Gun ownership rate: 4.4
Singapore: Homicide rate: 0.3 (2011) Gun ownership rate: 0.5
New Zealand: Homicide rate: 0.9 (2011) Gun ownership rate: 22.6
Belgium: Homicide rate: 1.8 (2011) Gun ownership rate: 17.2
Switzerland: Homicide rate: 0.6 (2011) Gun ownership rate: 45.7
Sweden: Homicide rate: 0.9 (2011) Gun ownership rate: 31.6
Hong Kong: Homicide rate: 0.2 (2011) Gun ownership rate: No data available
Denmark: Homicide rate: 0.8 (2011) Gun ownership rate: 12.0
Germany: Homicide rate 0.8 (2011) Gun ownership rate: 30.3
Austria: Homicide rate: 0.8 (2011) Gun ownership rate: 30.4
France: Homicide rate: 1.2 (2011) Gun ownership rate: 31.2
Netherlands: Homicide rate: 0.9 (2010) Gun ownership rate: 3.9
Kuwait: Homicide rate: 2.2 (2009) Gun ownership rate: 24.8
Norway: The homicide rate for Norway in 2011 was 2.3 compared to 0.6 in 2010. The 2011 figure includes victims of the terrorist attack. Gun ownership: 31.3
Spain: Homicide rate: 0.8 (2011) Gun ownership rate: 10.4
Ireland: Homicide rate: 0.9 (2011) Gun ownership rate: 8.6
Japan: Homicide rate: 0.3 (2011) Gun ownership rate: 0.6
England & Wales: Homicide rate: 1.0 (2011) Gun ownership rate: 6.2
It does not look like there appears to be a correlation with homicide rates and gun ownership, Dr. Hemenway.
I've also noticed that you seem to have conviently left two highly industralized countries from your study as well. Iceland and South Korea.
For the sake of argument, let's look at homicide and gun ownership rates for both.
Iceland: Homicide rate: 0.9 (2011) Gun ownership rate: 30.3
South Korea: Homicide rate 2.6 (2010) Gun ownership rate: 1.1
I await your reply."
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